Weather Pulse
Short, regular weather reads for the natural gas market.
Sunday Setup: EPS collapses, GEFS deepens the heating-demand deficit
Change: EPS slashes heating demand over the weekend as GEFS weakens further, with warmth spanning both forecast weeks.
Midweek Update: warmth limits early-November heating demand
Change: EPS loses 11.5 TDD versus the previous run; GEFS remains the warmest medium-range forecast.
Alert Pulse | GEFS caves, moves closer to EPS
Change: GEFS sheds warmth, converges with EPS
Sunday Setup: warm lean, models split
Change: GEFS loses 10.7 TDD since Friday while EPS adds 4.6. The warm lean remains, but its strength is unresolved.
Sunday Setup: GEFS catches EPS
Change: GEFS +10.6 TDD vs Friday, EPS flat, warm shoulder still above normal
Sunday Setup: quiet September shoulder
Change: Quiet shoulder: CDD fading across models, TDD near the 30-year mean, small Friday shuffle
Sunday Setup: hot into the shoulder
Change: EPS steady, GEFS hotter week 1, cooler week 2. CFSv2 back near normal into early October
Sunday Setup: still hot into September
Change: GEFS eased vs Friday 12Z toward EPS, both still +40 TDD vs normal.
Midweek Update: late-August and September heat holds
Change: GEFS +49.7 / EPS +45.6 vs normal on 15d - week 2 hotter since the weekend
Sunday Setup: heat holds, tape lags
Change: Little change since Friday - GEFS still very hot, EPS hot but softer; mid-August tails ease with CFSv2
Sunday Setup: still hot, but much less supportive
Change: EPS loses -9.0 TDD vs Friday, near-week cools, but the next two weeks stay well above normal
Midweek Update: EPS takes the heat lead
Change: PS overtakes GEFS on heat; late-July peak near 18.5 TDD; CFSv2 warmer into August
Sunday Setup: week-2 heat holds
Change: GEFS moves closer to EPS up front; week-2 heat still intact around Jul 26-29
Midweek Update: EPS gives up heat
Change: EPS lost major TDD since Sunday, GEFS steadier but week-2 heat is less confirmed
Midweek Update: warm, but not enough
Change: Weather stays above normal, but not strong enough to offset comfortable storage
Midweek Update: July heat reloads
Change: Hot Jul 1-4, brief moderation, then TDD rebuilds into mid-July
Midweek Update: storage beats, EPS heat builds
Change: Storage +76B vs +67B exp - bearish, EPS rebuilds TDD into early July
Sunday Setup: small Sunday nudge
Change: Sunday 12Z runs add a little TDD vs Friday - same story, no drama
Quiet Saturday hold
Change: Models aligned, little change vs Friday - Total Degree Days hugging the 30-year mean